(CNN)ISIS
is under pressure in parts of Iraq and battling a variety of
adversaries in Syria, but it's metastasizing at warp speed elsewhere,
most dangerously in Egypt and Libya.
It
also has support in Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan. And the leader of
the group ravaging northern Nigeria, Boko Haram, has expressed his
admiration of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
The
savage killing of 21 Egyptian Christians in Libya -- all of them
dressed in ISIS' trademark orange prison garb -- is another indication
of ISIS' ability to take advantage of collapsed or collapsing states and
of its growing presence in North Africa. Most significantly, the
atrocity took place in Sirte, a long way from ISIS' first stronghold around Derna in the east of the country.
ISIS'
presence in Sirte, a town of 50,000, has been growing. The Egyptians
were abducted in November, and more recently, the extremists
strengthened their presence by taking over government buildings and a
radio station.
In Libya since autumn
ISIS
first announced itself in Libya in October. Amateur video showed a
large crowd of militants in Derna affiliated with the Shura Council for
the Youth of Islam chanting their allegiance to al-Baghdadi. Sources
told CNN at the time that ISIS had up to 800 fighters in the area as
well as training facilities in the nearby Green Mountains. They were
bolstered by the return from Syria and Iraq of up to 300 Libyan
jihadists.
A short while later,
al-Baghdadi recognized three Libyan "provinces": Barqa (in the east),
Tripolitania (west) and Fezzan (south) as being part of the "caliphate."
Since then, ISIS has stepped up its presence across Libya. Late last month, a suicide bombing and gun attack on a hotel in the capital, Tripoli, killed 10 people,
including an American. The attack was swiftly claimed by Wilayat
al-Tarabulus, ISIS' name for the province. Politicians in Tripoli
disputed the claim.
ISIS has also been active in southern Libya, attacking a Libyan army checkpoint in Sokhna in January and killing 16 people.
While
a growing presence, the Libyan affiliate is some ways from being able
to mimic ISIS in Syria and Iraq, with its bureaucracy and governing
structure. Geoff Porter of North Africa Risk Consulting says that "even
in the jihadi stronghold of Derna, (ISIS) does not rule independent of a
broader coalition of like-minded, but ultimately distinct groups."
"While
ISIS may prove to be an enduring terrorist threat in Libya, it is very
unlikely to be able to develop to the point where it controls a
meaningful amount of territory," Porter says.
But
as in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has launched an effective social media
campaign in Libya. It has also made a concerted effort to attract
seasoned fighters from other groups, such as Ansar al Sharia.
ISIS Libyan affiliate has also started to exercise some forms of social control in areas where it is strong.
"The group has publicized hisba activities such as burning cigarette
cartons; destroying water pipes used for smoking; demolishing
"polytheistic" statues and shrines," says Andrew Engel of the Washington
Institute.
'A threat to international peace'
Hours after the Egyptian air force carried out retaliatory airstrikes Monday,
the Egyptian Foreign Ministry warned that "leaving the situation as it
is in Libya without a firm intervention to curtail these terrorist
organizations would be a threat to international peace and security."
The
Italian government has suggested an international peacekeeping presence
in Libya. Italy is acutely aware that it's the jumping-off point for a
growing flow of migrants and a base camp for terrorism, just hours
across the Mediterranean.
Bernardino
Leon, U.N. envoy to Libya, has floated the idea of international
monitors when a peace agreement between rival factions is hammered out.
But "when" seems a long way off, despite the beginning of talks between
rival factions in Geneva. And U.S. and European officials fear that
putting boots on the ground would be a bug light to ISIS supporters.
In a recent interview with the Financial Times,
Leon admitted that "terrorism is becoming a problem beyond the east [of
Libya.] It is growing into the west and now the south, and from the
west they might go to Tunisia and Algeria."
0 comments: